Virginia College Student Accurately Predicts US’s Most Crucial Elections

By Better Today On Nov 18, 2023

TL/DR –

Charles “Chaz” Nuttycombe, a political science student from Virginia Tech, has carved out a niche predicting US state legislative races and runs the forecasting site cnalysis.com. Nuttycombe’s focus on state legislatures fits with the rising understanding of the influential powers these bodies have, controlling policies on a range of issues from abortion to voting rights. The effort can be more challenging than predicting congressional races due to factors such as candidates’ lack of national profile and sparse polling.

Charles Nuttycombe Perfectly Predicts US State Legislative Election Results

Following the recent acquisition of the Virginia state legislature by the Democrats, Charles “Chaz” Nuttycombe accurately predicted the outcome of house of delegates districts 41 and 82. Even though this would not alter party control of the Virginia legislature, it highlighted the expertise Nuttycombe has in predicting results at the state legislative level.

Nuttycombe, a 24-year-old senior at Virginia Tech, operates the forecasting site cnalysis.com, which specializes in predicting outcomes for state legislative districts. He is one of few forecasters focused on the 7,383 state legislative districts across the country, highlighting the significant role of state legislatures in US politics.

As Nuttycombe emphasizes, the state legislature has a greater impact on day-to-day life than Congress, making state legislative elections a key area of focus. However, making accurate predictions can be challenging due to the lack of national profile for many running candidates and sparse polling data.

Despite these challenges, Nuttycombe has been able to carve out a successful career in this niche field, with his predictions garnering attention from professionals and amateurs alike. His dedication and relentless pursuit of data, even delving into campaign finance reports for legislative races, set him apart from others.

Nuttycombe’s team at cnalysis.com, made up of nine members, coordinate over Twitter, Slack, and Discord to make accurate predictions based on a variety of factors including previous election results, campaign finance reports, and insider data. This information is used to simulate election outcomes and predict chamber results.

While there have been learnings along the way, Nuttycombe has been able to maintain a nearly 95% accuracy rate. His success has even been acknowledged by the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC), who found Nuttycombe’s results consistent with their internal projections.

As Nuttycombe prepares to graduate and work full-time on his site, he continues to focus on the thousands of state legislative races that need analyzing and predicting. His passion for forecasting has him committed to this work long-term, stating, “I’ll do this until they put dirt over me.”