Nationwide and Local Political Ad Spending Predicted to Reach High Levels in Kern County: A Familiar Phenomenon

By Better Today On Sep 19, 2023

2023-2024 Election Cycle Expected to be the Most Expensive Yet

Bakersfield, Calif. – According to new projections by AdImpact, the 2023-2024 election cycle is predicted to be the most expensive one yet. AdImpact, an advertisement tracking software company based in Virginia, estimates that there will be over $10 billion in political expenditures across media platforms, including broadcast, cable, and digital. This projection would represent a 13% increase from the previous record of $9.02 billion spent nationwide during the 2020 election season.

Both the Democratic and Republican parties in Kern County are gearing up for what they anticipate will be another season of competitive and costly congressional races. Cathy Abernathy, 17’s GOP analyst, believes that it is essential for voters to have access to information from both sides of the race. She states, “Promoting their candidate, and opposing the opposition. Both parties will do that because their goal is to elect someone of their political philosophy.”

Political candidates have long relied on political advertisements to educate voters, diminish their opponent’s promises, or increase name recognition. The new projections indicate that this reliance on advertising will continue throughout the 2024 federal, state, and local races. Christian Romo, chair of the Kern Democratic Party, predicts another chaotic campaign season filled with back-and-forth ads where the truth becomes uncertain. Romo warns, “your phones will be blowing up 24/7” with campaign messaging.

During the previous election season, California’s 22nd congressional district, which includes Kern County, was one of the most fiercely contested and costly races. The outcome of the David Valadao and Rudy Salas match could have determined the House’s party dominance. Ultimately, Valadao, a Republican, won in this majority Latino, majority Democratic district. Over two-thirds of Valadao’s nearly $4 million campaign spending went towards communicating with voters, with some ads taking an offensive approach.

To turn the district into a Democrat-led area, Romo believes that Latino and Democratic votes will play crucial roles. He emphasizes the importance of getting people out to vote and expects millions to be spent on messaging and voter turnout efforts. Marisa Wood, who lost to Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California’s 20th congressional district and is running again in 2024, focused her ad spending on direct mail and digital ads. Wood spent approximately $147,000 on direct mail campaigning and around $290,000 on digital ads out of a little over $1 million raised and spent.

As the primary for the 2024 election is scheduled for March instead of June, the usual time for Halloween decorations may become a political ad season. Romo anticipates that campaigning will start earlier, possibly as early as October, with campaign ads, text messages, and mailers bombarding voters. Kern’s GOP expects the presidential race to be the most expensive in the county. The way the law is currently written allows Republican presidential candidates to win delegates by congressional districts, meaning they have to campaign in smaller areas like Bakersfield.

Both the county’s Democratic and GOP leaders stress that voters have a responsibility to do their own research on candidates. Abernathy believes that communication is key to educating voters, comparing it to researching colleges or industries before making important decisions. Kern County has a significant conservative population, although not necessarily majority Republican, and campaigns will make a substantial effort in reaching out to these conservative voters.

Abernathy acknowledges that the increasing ad spending is driven by rising industry costs, such as the price of a mail stamp. However, she emphasizes that there will always be costs when it comes to communicating with voters.

Link to original article: [2023-2024 Election Cycle Expected to be the Most Expensive Yet](https://www.kget.com/news/local-news/2023-2024-election-cycle-expected-to-be-the-most-expensive-yet/)