Trump in Strong Position for Potential 2024 Presidential Run
Donald Trump is defying expectations as he continues to dominate the field of potential Republican candidates for the 2024 presidential election. Despite facing two indictments and the potential for more, Trump’s polling numbers suggest that he is in a historically strong position for a nonincumbent to win the Republican nomination. In fact, no one in Trump’s current polling position in the modern era has lost an open presidential primary that didn’t feature an incumbent.
According to national primary polls, Trump is pulling in over 50% of support, surpassing all his competitors combined. His closest primary competitor, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, has fallen below 20% nationally, while no other contender is at or above 10%. This puts Trump’s lead over the rest of the field at more than 30 points on average. Past polls have shown candidates coming back from deficits greater than 10 points to win the nomination, but none greater than 30 points at this stage.
Furthermore, Trump’s lead is not only evident nationally but also in early-voting states such as Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. This puts him in a much stronger position than previous candidates who eventually secured their party’s nomination. For example, in the 2008 cycle, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton were within single digits of each other in early-voting states at this point in the campaign. In contrast, Trump’s lead in these crucial states is in the double digits.
What is even more remarkable is that despite facing two indictments, Trump remains competitive in a potential rematch with President Joe Biden. Recent polls have shown Trump either tied or ahead of Biden, with some pollsters indicating a narrow lead for Biden. This is a significant shift from the 2020 campaign when Trump never led in a single national poll that met CNN’s standards for publication.
However, it is important to note that the 2024 election will likely come down to a few swing states. Polling in these states has been limited due to the early stage of the election cycle. A late June poll from Pennsylvania, a pivotal state in recent elections, showed Trump ahead of Biden by 1 point. This result is within the margin of error but is noteworthy as it is only the second Pennsylvania poll meeting CNN’s standards since 2015 that had Trump leading.
While general election polling at this point is not predictive, the current landscape suggests that the possibility of Trump becoming president again in less than two years is very real. Both Trump and Biden are not popular candidates, making the election a choice between two disliked nominees. As the campaign progresses, swing state polling will become more crucial in determining the outcome of the election.
It is important to note that these dynamics can shift, and the 2024 election is still over a year away. However, Trump’s strong position in the primary and his competitiveness in a potential general election rematch highlight the enduring support he has among a significant portion of the American electorate.
Original Story at www.cnn.com – 2023-07-30 18:58:00
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