TL/DR –
Former President Donald J. Trump has been found guilty on all 34 counts in his hush-money trial, which could potentially impact the 2024 Presidential election. It offers the current President, Joe Biden, an opportunity to frame the race as a choice between a convicted felon and someone who is not. Democratic allies of Biden plan to emphasize Trump’s convicted felon status in their communication about him, while concerns about the political fallout from the conviction remain, especially in light of Trump’s continued popularity in numerous polls.
Trump’s Guilty Verdict in Hush-Money Trial: Political Repercussions for Biden
The recent conviction of former President Donald Trump could potentially shape the 2024 election outcome for current President Biden. Trump’s guilty verdict on all 34 counts in his hush-money trial has stirred Democratic celebrations and Republican outrage, framing the 2024 election as a choice between a convicted felon and a non-felon.
Biden has cast the 2024 election as a choice between him and a former leader who threatened abortion rights, democracy, and the rule of law. Despite Trump’s conviction shaking up U.S. politics and potentially impacting the fragmented news media ecosystem, polls reflecting dissatisfaction with Biden’s stewardship remain stable.
The Manhattan jury’s verdict has refocused attention on Trump, even if Biden doesn’t label his rival as a “felon”. Democratic allies, however, are likely to use this term repeatedly in their communications about Trump until the end of the campaign.
While the Biden campaign has tried to link the verdict to the choice voters will need to make in November, Biden himself has remained silent about the New York case against Trump. The White House issued a neutral statement respecting the rule of law.
Despite the conviction, Trump’s chances to win are still alive, as said by Jim Messina, a former Obama campaign manager. Democratic allies insist on the importance of the conviction, describing Trump as a “convicted criminal” or “convicted felon”.
However, the political implications remain uncertain. While some data suggest a conviction could harm Trump’s chances with some voters, Trump supporters anticipate a surge of Republican anger that could affect the November turnout. David Axelrod, Obama campaign architect, called this situation “uncharted waters” with unpredictable ramifications.
Representative Jasmine Crockett, accompanying Biden in a campaign event for Black voters, expressed hope that the conviction would galvanize progressives, despite some recent disillusionment with the president.
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