TL/DR –
A new Reuters/Ipsos poll suggests that a potential election rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump would be closely contested. The poll showed Trump with a slight 2-point lead nationally, and saw anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. potentially drawing more support from Biden than Trump if he was to launch an independent bid. The survey also identified significant risks to Trump’s campaign due to pending criminal trials he faces next year, with 31% of Republican respondents stating they would not vote for him if he was convicted of a felony crime.
2024 US Presidential Election Tensions: Biden vs Trump
A potential election rematch next year between U.S. President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump would be too close to call, according to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll. Both candidates have significant vulnerabilities that could jeopardize their chances.
Democrat Joe Biden, at 81, is grappling with voter uncertainty about the economy, border security and crime.
Trump, a 77-year-old Republican, is dealing with legal issues, including criminal trials pertaining to his efforts to overturn the 2020 election and alleged misuse of classified documents. A conviction before the Nov. 5, 2024, election could reduce his support, the poll suggests.
The poll gave Trump a slight 2-point edge in a head-to-head matchup, with 38% support to Biden’s 36%, while 26% of respondents were undecided or might choose another candidate.
The poll, carried out online Dec. 5-11, queried 4,411 U.S. adults and had a credibility interval of approximately 2 percentage points.
According to the poll, Trump is the likely Republican nominee by a significant margin.
Given the Electoral College system and entrenched partisan divides, only a few states will ultimately determine the election outcome.
In the seven tightly-contested states from the 2020 election, Biden led by 4 points among those who are certain to vote. Despite this, the poll revealed substantial voter indifference towards a potential Biden-Trump rematch, with about 60% of respondents expressing dissatisfaction with the two-party system and seeking a third option.
Role of RFK Jr in the Election
Anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has emerged as a potential third-party candidate. Poll data suggests that Kennedy, a member of the renowned political family, could draw more support from Biden than Trump.
When respondents were offered the option to vote for Kennedy, Trump’s lead expanded to a 5-point national advantage. Some 16% chose Kennedy, while Trump received 36% support and Biden had 31%. In the seven swing states, Trump also led Biden by five points when Kennedy was included.
Despite belonging to a prominent political dynasty, Kennedy faces a challenge to gather enough signatures for ballot inclusion in all 50 states. A super PAC supporting Kennedy’s bid announced plans to spend up to $15 million to secure his appearance on the ballot in 10 states as an initial step.
Although they seldom win, third-party candidates have influenced U.S. election outcomes. For example, Ross Perot’s strong performance in 1992 helped Bill Clinton secure the Presidency, while Ralph Nader’s 2000 bid was blamed by some for Al Gore’s loss to George W Bush.
Biden would be the oldest president elected to a second term if he wins in 2024. However, his campaign could be bolstered by public support for abortion rights, gun control, climate-change measures, and higher taxes for the ultra-rich, according to the Reuters/Ipsos poll.
The survey also indicated risks to Trump’s campaign due to his upcoming criminal trials. Approximately 31% of Republican respondents said they would not vote for Trump if he was convicted of a felony. Trump denies any criminal misconduct.
The poll showed 45% of respondents believing Trump is better equipped to manage the economy, while 33% chose Biden. On the issue of abortion, 44% indicated Biden as the better candidate for abortion access, compared to 29% for Trump.
Concerns about crime and immigration seem to be bolstering Trump’s standing. When asked which candidate was better on these issues, 42% chose Trump on crime, versus 32% for Biden. Furthermore, 54% agreed that “immigration is making life harder for native-born Americans,” with a similar share favoring Trump on this issue.
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