TL/DR –
A Washington Post-ABC News poll found former President Trump leading President Biden, with 51% support to Biden’s 42%. However, the Washington Post has said this poll is likely an outlier, as other polls show the candidates in a dead heat. Public opinion researcher Gary Langer suggested that negative sentiment toward Biden, might have influenced participants, and noted that “message-sending” could be a factor, as voters might use early polling to express current displeasure with a candidate rather than actual voting intentions.
The Washington Post acknowledged on Sunday that its ABC News collaboration poll may be an “outlier” as it showcased Trump leading Biden, a contrast to other polls depicting a tight race between the two candidates.
The ABC News-Washington Post survey found Trump leading with 51% support compared to Biden’s 42%. However, the Post identified Trump’s advantage as considerably differing from other public polls showing the electoral contest as a virtual deadlock, suggesting this data point could be an anomaly.
Public opinion researcher Gary Langer suggested in an ABC News analysis that the order of questions, which initially addressed Biden and Trump’s performance and relevant issues before soliciting participant’s candidate preferences, could be a factor.
Langer also theorized that voters may use early stage polls to express dissatisfaction with candidates rather than to indicate their likely ballot choices. In this case, the negativity towards Biden is real, consistently reflected in recent surveys, and highlights the challenges Biden faces.
Factors such as Biden’s poor ratings, economic discontent, and concerns about his age were all highlighted by Langer. He also emphasized how Trump’s criminal charges continue to mobilize his base while he is projected as the GOP primary race frontrunner.
The poll executed from Sept. 15-20 involved 1,006 adults nationwide, using the ABC/Post poll’s established methodology. Results have a 3.5 percentage point margin of sampling error.
Regarding demographic results and party preferences, Langer deemed them “typical,” with equal percentages of Democrats and Republicans, and a higher percentage of independents. The survey’s unusual coalition makeup of Trump and Biden supporters was also noted.
Recent polls, including an NBC News poll and a YouGov/Yahoo News poll, consistently show a close race between Trump and Biden, both at 46% and 44% respectively among registered voters.
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