Tropical Disturbances Break Weeks of Calm in the Atlantic
After nearly three weeks of quiet in the Atlantic, a series of tropical disturbances has suddenly emerged, causing experts to closely monitor the situation. Among these disturbances, one holds the highest chance of developing into a new tropical storm, but it is also the least likely to make landfall. This disturbance is located west of the Cabo Verde islands and is projected to move towards the open Atlantic.
Another tropical wave, situated between Africa and the Antilles, also has a moderate chance of development. It is expected to track west-northwest, potentially avoiding the Caribbean islands and veering into the northern Atlantic.
The National Hurricane Center has also flagged a third disturbance located about 600 miles east of the Windward Islands. As of Friday morning, it only had a slight chance of forming into a tropical depression or storm. However, regardless of its development, this wave is likely to produce squalls across the West Indies over the weekend and into early next week.
In addition to these disturbances, there is a cluster of showers and thunderstorms in the eastern Bahamas, connected to a low-pressure system in the upper atmosphere that is moving westward. While it may develop into a tropical low pressure center or storm next week, its impact on Florida is expected to be primarily in the form of rainfall. The development of a closed-off circulation at the surface is not anticipated until the disturbance has passed the peninsula and moved west into the central Gulf of Mexico. From that point, the system is likely to move towards the Texas coast, where rain is desperately needed due to an ongoing drought.
The sudden increase in potential hurricane formations has caused concern among many, especially considering the forecast for a hyperactive second half of the hurricane season. The Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico waters remain much warmer than usual, providing favorable conditions for tropical storms. However, the next five days are expected to bring an unusually high amount of wind shear in the Atlantic, which can hinder storm development.
These stronger westerly winds aloft, commonly associated with El Niño events, are currently present and are expected to persist throughout this hurricane season and into early 2024. While there have been concerns about the consistency of El Niño patterns over the Atlantic in the coming months, the forecast indicates strong wind shear for the next five days, likely limiting the development of the four systems being tracked in the Atlantic basin.
Overall, experts are closely monitoring these disturbances and the atmospheric conditions surrounding them. The potential for increased tropical activity remains a concern, and precautions should be taken in areas that may be affected by heavy rainfall or storm systems.
Original Story at www.nbcmiami.com – 2023-08-18 19:45:50
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