The Voting Patterns of 2022: Geographic Distribution and Non-Participation – Sabato’s Crystal Ball

The 2022 midterm elections in the United States saw a significant difference in voter turnout across congressional districts. Despite the requirement that districts have roughly equal populations, the number of raw votes cast in each district varied widely. The lowest-turnout district was NY-15 in New York City, with just 90,000 votes, while the highest-turnout district was MI-1 in northern Michigan, with nearly 390,000 votes. Republicans won about two-thirds of the districts with the most votes (300,000 or more), while Democrats won about two-thirds of the districts with the fewest votes (less than 200,000).

These differences in House turnout highlight the disparities in voter participation across the country. While voter turnout is often measured in percentages, this analysis focuses on the total number of ballots cast for the House of Representatives by congressional district. This allows for a comparison of where people voted and where they did not. Since the 1960s, congressional districts have been required to have roughly equal populations, but the turnout within these districts can still vary widely.

In the 2022 elections, nearly 107.7 million ballots were cast for the House nationwide. The average turnout per district was about 250,000 voters. Republicans tended to perform better in high-turnout districts, often suburban and affluent areas, while Democrats dominated in low-turnout districts, which were often urban and had significant minority populations. However, Democrats have been gaining ground in suburban areas in recent years as Republicans have shifted to the right on cultural issues.

Of the districts with high turnout (more than 300,000 votes), Republicans won 59 seats in the House, while Democrats won 32. In contrast, of the low-turnout districts (less than 200,000 votes), Democrats won 66 seats and Republicans won 32. The remaining districts fell in the middle range of 200,000-300,000 votes, with Republicans holding a slight edge. Overall, Republicans won 129 House seats in these middle-range districts, while Democrats won 115.

The regional breakdown of turnout also reveals interesting patterns. The Midwest had the largest share of high-turnout districts, while the West and South had the highest proportion of low-turnout districts. This suggests that regional factors can influence voter participation.

While the partisan difference between high and low turnout districts may initially appear to give Republicans an advantage in state-level races, this is not always the case. Low-turnout districts can still produce large pluralities for Democrats, rivaling the margins of victory in higher turnout districts. In fact, the average margin of victory for Democrats in the 25 lowest-turnout districts was larger than in the 25 highest-turnout districts.

These findings highlight the importance of understanding voter turnout patterns and their implications for electoral outcomes. As Democrats continue to make gains in high-turnout districts and Republicans maintain their dominance in low-turnout districts, future elections will likely be shaped by these dynamics.

Please note that the data and analysis presented in this article are based on the author’s compilation of the 2022 House vote for all 435 districts, minus two districts in Florida and Louisiana where no vote was taken. Blank and void ballots were not included in the tallies, but write-in votes were. The population and voter data used are from the Census Bureau and state election websites.

Original Story at centerforpolitics.org – 2023-07-20 04:01:41