New Hampshire is in open rebellion. Georgia is all but out. South Carolina and Nevada are on board but face stiff Republican pushback. Michigan’s compliance may mean having to cut the state legislative session short, despite Democrats controlling both chambers and the governor’s mansion. Then there’s Iowa, which is looking for ways to still go first without violating party rules. Months after the Democratic Party approved President Joe Biden’s plan to overhaul its primary order to better reflect a deeply diverse voter base, implementing the revamped order has proven anything but simple.
Despite the fact that it looked like relatively smooth sailing for the president when he proposed it … the kind of backlash you’re hearing, the reactions, are exactly what we would have expected,” said David Redlawsk, chair of the political science department at the University of Delaware and co-author of the book “Why Iowa? How Caucuses and Sequential Elections Improve the Presidential Nominating Process.” The DNC says it prepared for an arduous process, but is not too concerned by the uncertainty, in part because Biden faces only minor primary challengers in self-help author Marianne Williamson and anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Biden’s political advisers say the president doesn’t expect to campaign extensively in the Democratic primary and instead will focus on the general election. But the primary calendar drama might nonetheless prove a headache for Democrats who want to project unity ahead of 2024 and might spell trouble for 2028 — when the party has promised to revisit its primary calendar anew. Jim Roosevelt, co-chairman of the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee, said he “was not surprised” at the objections of Iowa and New Hampshire since they are losing their leadoff spots, and that the committee is “definitely able to work around” the protests of Republicans in places adjusting to new rules or new slots on the calendar.
This year’s shakeup followed the 2020 Iowa caucus meltdown. Iowa responded by proposing new rules allowing Democrats to submit their presidential choices by mail, breaking with past caucus rules requiring in-person participation. Scott Brennan, an Iowa attorney and member of the DNC’s rules committee, said his state “knew the deck was stacked against us” from the start of the primary calendar shakeup — but its Democrats have since attempted to avoid open defiance of national party plans.
Republicans are still leading off their 2024 primary with Iowa’s caucus, and the Iowa GOP could set its caucus date next month. That would then allow Iowa Democrats to tell the DNC when it plans to hold its caucus, even if the presidential results aren’t released until later. Iowa Democrats hope their more flexible attitude could see the state let back into the Democratic primary’s top 5, if Georgia and New Hampshire vacate their spots. That would mean Iowa filling a potential gap between when Nevada votes on Feb. 6 and Michigan does on Feb. 27 — through Roosevelt said such a scenario is unlikely.
If New Hampshire presses forward with its plan to go first, and Biden opts not to campaign there, one of his challengers could see a bump in support. That would be potentially embarrassing to the president, though the DNC has pointed to polling showing Biden with a substantial lead in the state’s primary. Biden’s reelection campaign has refused to discuss his primary challengers or whether they might be buoyed by success in an unsanctioned New Hampshire primary. Iowa Democrats, by contrast, have suggested they’ll list Biden among the presidential preferences in their caucus whether he campaigns there or not — potentially sparing the president embarrassment there.
Redlawsk said the fact that Democrats have made it this far in their calendar shakeup means “the battle will continue, but I think it’s far more likely that change will now happen” and that the impact could be profound. “These early states really do condition the campaign. The early states don’t guarantee a winner, but they tell us who is going to lose, at least in the first rounds,” Redlawsk said. “The winnowing is very likely to be different if the first state is South Carolina, or Nevada, or some combination, than if it were Iowa or New Hampshire.”
Original Story at abcnews.go.com – 2023-07-03 04:45:51
Comments are closed.