The 2024 presidential general election is shaping up to be one of the most tightly contested races in modern history, with only a handful of swing states likely to determine the outcome. According to political analysts, the number of states that can genuinely be considered battlegrounds has been shrinking over the past few decades, with just seven or eight states expected to be up for grabs in the upcoming election.
This trend is reflected in the consistency of voting patterns across the country. In the past four presidential elections, 40 out of 50 states have consistently voted for either the Democratic or Republican nominee. This level of consistency is the highest since the turn of the 20th century, indicating a decline in the number of states that are truly competitive.
The shrinking battleground can also be seen in the diminishing number of states where the margin of victory closely aligns with the national popular vote. In recent elections, these competitive states accounted for less than one-third of all Electoral College votes. This trend has led analysts to identify only a few states as genuine toss-ups for 2024, including Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Nevada.
Michigan and Pennsylvania, which were key to former President Trump’s victory in 2016, have shifted back towards the Democrats in recent years. Democrats have made gains in these states, winning the gubernatorial elections in 2018 and 2022 by significant margins. The party’s success in these states can be attributed to strong support from voters who prioritize abortion rights.
Conversely, Democrats are hoping to reverse their decline in North Carolina, where the Republican-controlled state legislature recently imposed an unpopular abortion ban. However, the party faces an uphill battle in the state, as they have not built a strong voter mobilization infrastructure.
With so few states in play, the amount of advertising targeted at voters in these battlegrounds is expected to be overwhelming. Voters in these states can expect to see ads on every conceivable medium, from mobile devices to television screens and even gas pumps.
This early ranking of the states has significant implications for the candidates. If the current trends hold, Democrats would have a head start in the race for the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the presidency. The GOP would need to reverse the recent movement of Michigan and Pennsylvania towards the Democrats in order to have a realistic chance of victory.
As the 2024 election approaches, both parties will be closely watching these key battleground states, pouring resources into advertising and mobilization efforts. The outcome of the race will likely hinge on the decisions of a small number of voters in these states, making their role in deciding the future of American politics more crucial than ever before.
Original Story at www.cnn.com – 2023-09-04 04:06:00