Biden’s Shifting Base of Support: Less Reliance on Blue-Collar Voters, More on Affluent Voters
Throughout his political career, President Joe Biden has positioned himself as a champion of the middle class. However, a combination of factors may be pushing him towards a shift in his base of support in the 2024 election. While Biden has been successful in appealing to blue-collar voters in the past, his current opportunities lie with better-educated and more affluent voters.
Polls show that upscale voters are more likely to view former President Donald Trump as a threat to American democracy and are more supportive of abortion rights. This widening opportunity with affluent voters is contrasted by a decline in support from working-class voters, who are expressing frustration over the economy and inflation.
Biden does have some advantages in trying to recapture support from working-class voters. The moderating trend in inflation, the visible effects of his economic investments, and a large campaign budget for advertising could help sway their opinion. However, if the cost of daily necessities continues to rise, especially for those with limited incomes, discontent with Biden’s economic leadership may persist.
To secure a winning coalition for a second term, Biden may rely on convincing voters who feel he hasn’t delivered for their interests to vote for him anyway because the alternative, Trump or another GOP nominee, poses an even greater threat to their values. This dynamic could further shift Biden’s coalition towards upscale voters.
In the 2020 election, Biden performed better than Hillary Clinton did in 2016 among voters with at least a four-year college education. This advantage among better-educated voters helped him overcome Trump’s narrow edge among voters without a college degree. However, compared to his vote share in 2020, Biden’s standing is weaker among almost every key group, especially those with less education.
One of the major challenges facing Biden is doubts about his age and concerns over the economy, particularly inflation. The concern about Biden’s age is not limited to any specific education group. However, frustration over high prices is most acute among voters with fewer resources, including those with less education.
Higher prices are overshadowing the positive news in the economy, such as historically low unemployment rates. Despite overall economic growth, surveys consistently show that Americans with less education and income believe the US is in a recession and the economy is shrinking.
The discontent and frustration over the economy have led to negative reviews of Biden’s management of the economy, particularly among voters with less education and income. The share of voters without a college degree who believe Biden’s policies have weakened the economy is significantly larger than those who believe his plans have improved conditions.
In contrast, Biden’s opportunities to regain support, especially against Trump, are greater among voters with a college degree. One reason for this is the issue of abortion, with majorities of voters with and without a college degree consistently holding different views on the matter.
In conclusion, Biden’s base of support appears to be shifting towards more affluent and better-educated voters, while he faces challenges in maintaining support among working-class voters. The economy, particularly inflation, is a key factor influencing voter sentiments, and Biden’s ability to address these concerns will be crucial in securing a second term.
Original Story at www.cnn.com – 2023-09-12 04:07:00
Comments are closed.