Times/Siena Poll Reveals Republicans Uniting in Support of Trump Post Conviction

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TL/DR –

A new poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena College reveals that President Biden is facing more doubts among Democrats than former President Trump among Republicans, despite Trump’s recent conviction of 34 felony charges. The survey indicates that Trump has consolidated his party’s support better, with 90% of Republicans still viewing him favorably and 72% of voters who supported Biden in the previous election approving of his presidency. Additionally, despite Trump’s criminal conviction, it appears to have had little impact on voter preference, with two-thirds of voters stating that the outcome did not influence their voting decision.


President Biden Faces More Doubts Among Democrats Than Trump Among Republicans

Recent polls conducted by The New York Times and Siena College reveal that President Biden is facing more doubts amongst Democrats than what former President Donald Trump is experiencing with Republicans, even after Trump’s conviction of 34 felony charges.

The national survey, conducted on the eve of the first presidential debate, indicates a general distaste for both candidates. However, Trump has better consolidated the support of his party. In fact, only 72% of voters who voted for Biden four years ago approve of his presidential performance so far.

Trump’s guilty verdict doesn’t seem to have swayed voters’ opinions much. Two-thirds of the voters stated that the outcome of his Manhattan criminal case had no impact on their vote, with around 90% of Republicans still viewing Trump favorably. Even those who said the conviction would influence their vote, Republicans were four times more likely to support Trump than oppose him.

The Poll’s Impact on Independent Voters

The poll did reveal some vulnerabilities for Trump, particularly among independent voters who could prove decisive in November. Twice as many independents stated that the conviction made them more likely to oppose Trump, and a majority believe he received a fair trial.

Despite these figures, Trump is currently leading Biden 48% to 44% among likely voters in the latest Times/Siena poll, showing a 3 percentage point margin. Trump’s lead with registered voters is even larger at 6 percentage points.

These results differ significantly from the new national polling average released by The New York Times this week, indicating Trump is leading Biden by approximately one percentage point. Whether these results reflect a shift in public opinion or a random error is yet to determine.

Trump’s Conviction May Have Galvanized His Base

Trump’s conviction seems to have galvanized his Republican base, with his supporters contributing $53 million to his campaign within 24 hours after the verdict. In contrast, Biden and his campaign have been largely silent about Trump’s criminal charges, although they have recently started running ads in battleground states highlighting Trump’s status as a “convicted felon”.

However, 53% of voters, including 21% of Biden’s supporters, believe Trump should not go to prison as a result of his conviction, which centered on falsifying records to cover up a hush-money payment made during his 2016 campaign.

The Impact of Age on Voters’ Perceptions

Age appears to be a significant challenge for Biden, with approximately 70% of voters considering him too old to be effective, including a majority of his own voters. In comparison, only about 40% of voters view Trump as too old.

The primary issues for voters continue to be inflation and the economy, with most voters believing Trump would handle these concerns more effectively. Immigration is also becoming an increasingly important issue for voters, including a significant number of Democrats, with these voters being six times more likely to believe Trump would handle the matter more effectively.

Despite this, Biden still holds favor with voters who prioritized abortion as a central issue to their vote, leading Trump by 8% among these voters. On foreign policy concerns, such as the wars in Gaza or Ukraine, voters trusted Trump more on the issue.

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